Which tones are hardest, why, and where to start.
PAM-L2 predicts that Mandarin T2 and T4 both fall outside single Dutch phonological categories, so they should be well discriminated, with T4 classified better than T2. Zou et al. (2016) tested 30 Dutch learners (beginner/advanced) plus 15 Dutch and 15 Mandarin controls in an ABX task; the advanced group improved significantly and integrated segmental and tonal information more like natives. Note: only the T2/T4 pair was tested, and no production error direction is given.
Source: Zou, Chen & Caspers (2016), Leiden University | Leather, Jonathan (1990), Interrelation of perceptual and productive learning in the initial acquisition of second-language tone, in Second-Language Speech, 75–102. DOI: 10.1515/9783110882933.75
Group averages tell you where to look, not what you actually do. Two speakers of the same first language can differ a lot. The only way to know is to record yourself and compare.
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