Which tones are hardest, why, and where to start.
Studies exist on Arabic-background learners: an MA thesis at Shanghai Normal University with 11 beginner students (from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Djibouti and Chad, about 1 year of Chinese), plus a survey of Egyptian university students tracing acquisition order and error patterns. However, no specific tone error direction could be found — only the general conclusion that tones are difficult.
Source: 高秀娟. 越南语和阿拉伯语背景留学生汉语声调偏误研究. 上海师范大学硕论 | 张伟. 埃及大学生汉语声调习得偏误调查. 辽宁师范大学 | XLinguae (2025), 79 名沙特初学者. DOI 见 xlinguae.eu/2025_18_4_12
Group averages tell you where to look, not what you actually do. Two speakers of the same first language can differ a lot. The only way to know is to record yourself and compare.
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